Monday, October 16, 2017

Gold is still in a Bull Market even in US Dollar terms

"The monetary authorities are all still remaining expansionary. Gold has been rallying in dollar terms. It has been a bull market since December. And it is still a bull market. The last rally took us from $1,200 to $1,370. And the fact that we are now below $1,300 is relatively inconsequential.

If you are not long, you should use this weakness we have had in the past two weeks to be a buyer, no question.

Gold will be demonstrably higher then where it is right now. $1,400 is a reasonable expectation. I am not a gold bug. I don't believe the world is going to come to an end. I don't think you own gold because you think governments are going to be collapsing around the world."

On the potential for upcoming Fed Rate Hikes 

"[Rate Hikes] is going to take five or six years. This is not something that will occur overnight."

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Stocks look extremely expensive - This can end badly

"I don't care which valuation you put upon it — price to earnings, price to book value, margin usage, the market is extremely high, as I have said before. It is a bull market, you are to be long, but you cant be very long. These things will end. And it will end badly when it does end. It has been a protracted bull market, that I think is extremely overextended."

via CNBC

Monday, September 11, 2017

This market has surprising bullish strength

The Bull Market continues....

"The global bull market can absorb the seriousness of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma; it can absorb the continued threats from North Korea; it can absorb the threats to the very veracity of the European Union as the citizens of Catalonia are prepared to separate in a quiet civil “war” from the rest of Spain. It absorbs the high valuations to which share prices have advanced relative to book value; P/e multiples are high and rising; price:book value ratios are as extended as we’ve seen them since the late 90’s and the early first years of this century.

Government borrowing ratios compared to GDP estimates are historically wide; wage pressures are being felt everywhere and margin usage is egregiously extended… and yet prices move higher.

So, we are left with the singular notion that this does indeed remain a bull market, but risking abject, disdainful redundancy, we shall again iterate that we are to err bullishly of equities in global terms but we needn’t be… nor should we be… aggressively so. Modestly long; tenuously long; deer-in-the-headlights fearfully long…. That’s what we are or should be as of the moment and that’s all we shall advocate."

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Gasoline prices have surprised to the upside

You have refineries that are being closed and not going to be open for a few days. If you had asked me a week and half ago if this would have been a disastrous hurricane, I would have thought no.

The fact that it stayed, continued, blew up and stayed for four or five days, this could be weeks, perhaps even months before we return to any sense of normalcy. You could have gasoline prices 25 to 35 cents higher for retail in a very short span of time. 

So this is hurricane season. Hurricane season hits peak September 15. Let's hope that we can get through September 15.