Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The volatility in Bitcoin is frightening

[Bitcoin] has been given some sense of legitimacy by the CBOE. So clearly it has given some legitimacy. But when they begin to pay taxes on it, when it ceases to be an avenue for avoiding taxes, when it ceases to be a place where drug dealers are trading and making transactions, then I'll be interested. I'd much rather own steel, I'd much rather own land, I'd much rather own ships. Bitcoin is the modern day Tulip Bulb mania. I will let others trade it, I won't trade it.

Monday, December 4, 2017

Right now it is still a bull market

"You're at this point in the stock market where it can do anything. It's gone parabolic. This is still a bull market. It is stunning to me, surprising to me, but it still wants to go up." 

Monday, November 20, 2017

Bonds may not be a good buy for a while

Bond had a good run until October 2016
"The end of the bull market in bonds came in October last year. Rates have been rising for over a year now. Volume is coming on the down side. That is a material difference.
Clearly I don’t want to own the longer end of the curve. You will not want to own it for many years in the future. Probably two decades."

Stock market correction within next three years could help Bond bulls for a short time.
"We will get a material bear market in equities in the next three years. And you will wish you went to hide in the bond market for some small amount of time.
At this point in time, I’m not paying attention to the diversification element. Do I want to own bonds now? The answer is no.”

via www.wealthmanagement.com/fixed-income/should-investors-buy-bonds-today 

Monday, November 13, 2017

Saudi shakeup led to muted response in the oil market

"You may get another dollar or 2 upfront in the front months just because of the confusion. But in the long run, this is terribly detrimental to crude oil prices. 

Over the weekend, it had barely moved, and I thought that was fascinating that crude oil didn't move much at all. If this had occurred five years ago, crude oil would have been $5, $6, $7, $8, $9 higher in the course of two days. Instead it took a $2 or $3 barrel higher and it seems to be stalling.

Is Saudi Arabia losing its position of authority? Absolutely. The game has changed dramatically."

via https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/08/saudi-shakeup-is-terribly-detrimental-to-oil-prices-dennis-gartman.html